<< Subject: Re: Edward Hutchison Omaha System
From: ***@yahoo.com (Iceman)
Date: Mon, Dec 29, 2003 07:09
Message-id: <***@posting.google.com> >>
Ah Iceman - I dropped it over on 2+2, but feel inclined to answer you somewhere
since you persist.
"In Omaha-8, hands containing suited kings, pairs of
jacks or A4 lows will win a fair number of pots in showdown simulations, but
the hands they make can't be played strongly, and they will be very expensive
when they lose."
You have a bunch of stuff lumped together that may merit (does merit in my
humble opinion) separate treatment.
Let's just take suited kings. When you have a suited king in a nine handed
game, one of your opponents was dealt the suited ace roughly one third of the
time. Depending on when the board flushes (flop, turn or river), it should be
relatively easy for a skillful Omaha-8 player* to determine if an opponent has
the ace flush. Not always, but more often than not.
"Skill" in Omaha-8 involves putting your opponents on cards and playing
accordingly. (in my opinion)
In that way, Omaha-8 resembles bridge. There are two aspects to bridge, (1)
bidding and (2) play of the cards. Bidding properly is obviously very
important. You clearly have to bid correctly to stay out of trouble and to get
your due. However, "bidding" requires less skill than "the play of the cards."
To play a hand skillfully, whether declarer or defender, you place the key
cards, often after the first trick or two, and then play accordingly. Look at
it this way: many more bridge players can bid properly than can routinely pull
off a squeeze or end-play.
Similarly, in Omaha-8 you have to be reasonably astute at starting hand
selection, and in knowing when the cards in your hand fit with the cards in the
flop. But neither of these requires much "skill." The "proof" is that many more
Omaha-8 players are good at starting hand selection than are able to accurately
put their opponents on cards.
For those who lack "skill" at playing Omaha-8, king flushes have much less
value than ace flushes. However, skillful Omaha-8 players, though still
prefering the nuts, can often play 2nd nut flushes strongly and confidently.
Stated over-simplistically, the reason you usually can flush (sorry, I couldn't
resist) out the nut flush is that it behooves the player with the nut flush to
bet it strongly. Think about it; you can't slow play a nut flush and give
someone a free or cheap draw to beat you with a full house. (If you're up
against opponents who routinely slow play nut flushes on the turn, you should
plan on a profitable evening). Okay, let's say your opponents are tricky in
varying their play. Even so, they should usually not be coy with their nut
flushes on the turn.
Roughly half of the time when you make the second nut (or any) flush, you make
it on the river, and when that happens it's difficult to know whether a passive
opponent seated behind you has you beaten or not. In that case, you have to
figure that you'll lose one time out of three.
However, when the board flushes on the flop or the turn (and this happens
roughly the other half of the time), the player with the nut flush is more or
less forced to bet it strongly to protect his/her hand.
So okay, I'll agree that someone lacking in Omaha-8 playing skill cannot drive
the betting with a king flush - but if you can read your opponents well enough
to determine when one of them has an ace flush (or draw), then I think you
should be able to drive the betting with your 2nd nut flush almost as well as
though you held the nut flush.
Obviously if you can't tell when you're up against the nut flush going to get
burned one third of the time when you have the 2nd nut flush. But if you *can*
tell, then I think you reduce the burns to one sixth of the time or less. I'm
assuming sensible play.
Just my opinion.
Buzz