Discussion:
What are the odds (pocket A's twice in a row)
(too old to reply)
Jeff Brady
2004-07-06 22:53:16 UTC
Permalink
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)

What's the odds of that happening?
SenorBeef
2004-07-06 23:10:23 UTC
Permalink
Once you have aces, the chances of getting them next time is 1 to 220.

If you're asking what the odds are of getting them twice in a row from
scratch, I'm guessing 1/221 * 1/221 = 1/48841
Wongboy
2004-07-06 23:14:52 UTC
Permalink
Once you have been dealt pocket A's, the odds that you will get pocket A's
in the very next hand are 220 to 1.

On the other hand, at any given point, the odds that your next two hands
in a row will both be pocket A's are 48,400 to 1.
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
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Gary Carson
2004-07-07 00:51:10 UTC
Permalink
The odds that at some point in your life you'll be dealt AA twice in a row are
pretty high.



--
Gary Carson
http://garycarson.com
Jeff Plas
2004-07-07 02:43:35 UTC
Permalink
Or, since we're dealing with party poker, about 50/50.

j/k
Jeff
Post by Wongboy
Once you have been dealt pocket A's, the odds that you will get pocket A's
in the very next hand are 220 to 1.
On the other hand, at any given point, the odds that your next two hands
in a row will both be pocket A's are 48,400 to 1.
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Captain Jack
2004-07-06 23:53:04 UTC
Permalink
I do know you can not have a winning hand of AA553 when you hold AA. That
would mean there was a 553 on the board. For these 3 cards to play, there
would need to be 2 cards also on the board lower than a 3 for the 3 to
play. So the odds of AA553 being the winning hand is 0.
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Chuck B
2004-07-07 00:03:12 UTC
Permalink
Nope Wrong, Board could be 5 5 3 2 2 or 5 5 3 3 2, which make his winning
hand AA553. Neithe the pair of 3's or 2's would play so the 3 would be the
kicker.
Post by Captain Jack
I do know you can not have a winning hand of AA553 when you hold AA. That
would mean there was a 553 on the board. For these 3 cards to play, there
would need to be 2 cards also on the board lower than a 3 for the 3 to
play. So the odds of AA553 being the winning hand is 0.
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Jeff Brady
2004-07-07 00:11:51 UTC
Permalink
I saw what he was saying though, that the 5th card in my hand was probably
higher than a 3 (and it probably was!)
Post by Chuck B
Nope Wrong, Board could be 5 5 3 2 2 or 5 5 3 3 2, which make his winning
hand AA553. Neithe the pair of 3's or 2's would play so the 3 would be the
kicker.
Post by Captain Jack
I do know you can not have a winning hand of AA553 when you hold AA. That
would mean there was a 553 on the board. For these 3 cards to play, there
would need to be 2 cards also on the board lower than a 3 for the 3 to
play. So the odds of AA553 being the winning hand is 0.
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Captain Jack
2004-07-07 18:32:18 UTC
Permalink
I stand corrected. Thx
Post by Chuck B
Nope Wrong, Board could be 5 5 3 2 2 or 5 5 3 3 2, which make his winning
hand AA553. Neithe the pair of 3's or 2's would play so the 3 would be the
kicker.
Post by Captain Jack
I do know you can not have a winning hand of AA553 when you hold AA. That
would mean there was a 553 on the board. For these 3 cards to play, there
would need to be 2 cards also on the board lower than a 3 for the 3 to
play. So the odds of AA553 being the winning hand is 0.
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Jeff Brady
2004-07-07 00:07:29 UTC
Permalink
I might have been wrong about the 3 .. I know I won with a two pair, aces
and fives. You're right, I would have won with AA55X where X is the highest
card on the board. I think. Either way, the point was I got dealt pocket
aces 2 hands in a row, and the chance of that happening is 1 in 48500 (or
so)
Post by Captain Jack
I do know you can not have a winning hand of AA553 when you hold AA. That
would mean there was a 553 on the board. For these 3 cards to play, there
would need to be 2 cards also on the board lower than a 3 for the 3 to
play. So the odds of AA553 being the winning hand is 0.
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
SenorBeef
2004-07-07 00:58:40 UTC
Permalink
Same odds of you getting 88 and then 22 in 2 consecutive hands. You can ask
"what're the odds?!?!" of just about anything mundane and they work out to
be pretty small.
infarom
2004-07-09 14:16:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by SenorBeef
Same odds of you getting 88 and then 22 in 2 consecutive hands. You can ask
"what're the odds?!?!" of just about anything mundane and they work out to
be pretty small.
I recommend you "Texas Hold'em Odds" (ebook), written by
mathematician, also author of "Probability Guide of Gambling". It
holds all odds involved, for your hand and for opponents' hands, for
each possible card formation, in any of betting moments. You can
correctly perform any hand analysis.
You can get it from www.probability.go.ro/page8.html

rbdavis3
2004-07-07 00:11:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Captain Jack
I do know you can not have a winning hand of AA553 when you hold AA. That
would mean there was a 553 on the board. For these 3 cards to play, there
would need to be 2 cards also on the board lower than a 3 for the 3 to
play. So the odds of AA553 being the winning hand is 0.
Not so, but it would be a stretch. If the board came down 55322, then his
AA would make a third pair knocking out the 22, and since the 3 is bigger
than the 2s, it becomes the kicker.

_________________________________________________________________
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Chuck Kersey
2004-07-07 21:12:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Captain Jack
I do know you can not have a winning hand of AA553 when you hold AA. That
would mean there was a 553 on the board. For these 3 cards to play, there
would need to be 2 cards also on the board lower than a 3 for the 3 to
play. So the odds of AA553 being the winning hand is 0.
Well, you're an idiot...55322 board what would the AA play?

_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
schwah
2004-07-06 23:53:47 UTC
Permalink
ive only gotten aces twice in a row once.. it was a $50 sng on stars...

i happened to lose BOTH hands and went from chipleader to bust :)
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Siawyn
2004-07-07 00:50:56 UTC
Permalink
prolly shoulda folded
Post by schwah
ive only gotten aces twice in a row once.. it was a $50 sng on stars...
i happened to lose BOTH hands and went from chipleader to bust :)
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
CEO, PantherPoker.com
2004-07-07 10:49:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to learn
the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full house AAAQQ.
Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
No clue at the odds...BUT I was dealt pocket aces three hands in a row at
Casino AZ...almost mucked the 3rd deal so that people wouldn't think I was
cheating. Won all 3 hands, but didn't have to show one of the hands. This
was a B&M too so no online riggedness here!!

Tanya

_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Fred
2004-07-07 17:53:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by CEO, PantherPoker.com
Post by Jeff Brady
I'm a PartyPoker no0b. I play super low limit, mostly for fun and to
learn the game a bit. Anyway, I get pocket Aces, and win with a full
house AAAQQ. Next hand, I get pocket aces AGAIN! (and win with AA553)
What's the odds of that happening?
No clue at the odds...BUT I was dealt pocket aces three hands in a row
at Casino AZ...almost mucked the 3rd deal so that people wouldn't
think I was cheating. Won all 3 hands, but didn't have to show one of
the hands. This was a B&M too so no online riggedness here!!
The odds are 221^2:1. 3 times in a row is 221^3:1. I have been dealt AA
twice in a row before. Yesterday I was dealt Presto twice in a row. The
odds might be the same, but they seem higher. BTW, it lost both times.
Heresy.

Fred.
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