Discussion:
Calculating Odds for Runner Runner to Make Flush
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dooddlebugg
2004-02-04 05:59:04 UTC
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If you're holding a three card flush on the flop, what are the odds on
catching a runner, runner of the same suit, on the turn and the river, to
backdoor into a flush? And how is the calculation done? Thanks in
advance.

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Jacob Gluck
2004-02-04 06:27:18 UTC
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There is a total of C(47,2) = 1,081 possible combinations for the last two
cards. In order to make a flush, both of the cards must be of the suit that
the player is holding. We therefore must choose 2 out of the ten remaining
cards of that suit. C(10,2) = 45. Only 45 combinations will yield a flush.

45/1,081=.0416 making it a 4.16% chance of catching runner runner flush.
Post by dooddlebugg
If you're holding a three card flush on the flop, what are the odds on
catching a runner, runner of the same suit, on the turn and the river, to
backdoor into a flush? And how is the calculation done? Thanks in
advance.
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Steve Kahn
2004-02-04 06:32:35 UTC
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You've seen 5 cards so 48 are left; 10 of those are your suit. So the
probability of hitting your suit on the turn is 10/48, or about 21%. If you
hit then there are 9 of your suit left, out of 47 cards, 9/47 is about 19%.
You need both of these things to happen so you multiply .21 x .19 to get .04
or about a 4% chance (24:1) that you will hit both your cards...
Steve
Post by dooddlebugg
If you're holding a three card flush on the flop, what are the odds on
catching a runner, runner of the same suit, on the turn and the river, to
backdoor into a flush? And how is the calculation done? Thanks in
advance.
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
Someguy91
2004-02-04 06:48:51 UTC
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23:1 4.2%
Post by dooddlebugg
If you're holding a three card flush on the flop, what are the odds on
catching a runner, runner of the same suit, on the turn and the river, to
backdoor into a flush? And how is the calculation done? Thanks in
advance.
_________________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com - http://www.recpoker.com
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