losing with quads in omaha...

Discussion:

(too old to reply)

pokercracker

2005-10-06 16:47:41 UTC

just wondering if anyone knows/can figure the odds of losing with quads
to a straight flush in omaha are? .... as in what are the odds of that
situation occurring at all, not after one is made and then getting
sucked out on. ty.

redriverr

2005-10-06 17:00:14 UTC

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50/50 either you do or you don't

Post by pokercracker
just wondering if anyone knows/can figure the odds of losing with quads
to a straight flush in omaha are? .... as in what are the odds of that
situation occurring at all, not after one is made and then getting
sucked out on. ty.

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Paul L. Schwartz

2005-10-06 17:03:19 UTC

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Your question cannot be answered because it depends on many factors you
have not specified. One thing I can say for sure is that if you play
enough it will happen.

Some factors:

1)How many players? It is more likely to happen in a 10 player game
than a two player game.

2)How loose are the players? In a tight game it will occurr less often
because players will fold many more hands with the potential for SF
over quads.

3) How many hands? The longer you play the more likely this is to
happen.

If you wanted to frame the question better, you could ask, "in a
10-handed omaha game, all players seeing the showdown, on average how
frequently will quads lose to a straight flush?" That question is
probably best answered with a simulation, rather than a direct
calculation.

Paul

pokercracker

2005-10-06 17:08:30 UTC

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yeah, good point. too early for me still....so here is added info for
the situation....
2 players decide to see the flop, and the hand is taken thru the river.
how frequently will quads lose to a straight flush? any ideas?

Paul Dreyer

2005-10-06 21:49:58 UTC

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Okay, two players, assume one has a pair, the other has a suited
"semi-connector" (where the cards differ in rank by no more than four), none of
their cards counterfeit the other's big hand (i.e. if you have a pair of 8s, the
opponent doesn't hold one of the other 8s, if your opponent has Kh Jh, you don't
hold 9h, Th, Qh, or Ah).

Two cases:

1. One of the cards that makes your quads helps to make their straight flush.
For example, you have 8s 8c, they have 7h 9h and the board comes 8h 8d Th Jh x.

The board will consists of the pair to make your quads, plus up to three pairs
of cards to complete their straight flush (e.g. the board could also hold 6h and
Th in the above example, for a suited connector, it is possible to have a third
pair of cards: if the opponent holds 6h 7h and the board has 8h 8d, either 9hTh,
5h9h or 4h5h makes the straight flush), plus a fifth card (there are 40 possible
other cards). This means there are either 40, 80, or 120 boards for which this
will occur (although really, there are 79 and 118 boards in the last two cases,
since you're double/triple counting the case where the "x" card is the other
card that makes the straight flush, e.g. 8h 8d Th Jh 7h).

Case 2: Your quads are independent of the straight flush. In that case, there
are either 1, 2, or 3 boards that'll make both hands (depending on if it is a
suited connector, one-gapper, or near the ends (e.g. Ah Kh).

Since there are 44C5 = 1086008 possible boards, your final answer is: not bloody
likely.

Post by pokercracker
yeah, good point. too early for me still....so here is added info for
the situation....
2 players decide to see the flop, and the hand is taken thru the river.
how frequently will quads lose to a straight flush? any ideas?

_______________________________________________________________
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Raider Fan

2005-10-06 21:59:18 UTC

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They are less than a million to one because I've lost quads at least 10
times and I haven't played 10,000,000 hands. You shouldn't play Omaha if
you don't like bad beats.

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Madd Scientist

2005-10-06 22:07:10 UTC

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very very probable. if i play a 4 hour sessions i'm almost guaranteed
to see quads beat at least once.

ploholic

2005-10-07 02:50:29 UTC

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hi pokercracker.
For a straightflush to beat four of a kind, four of a kind has first
got to be dealt. For a four of a kind in Omaha to be possible, your
holecards has got to contain one or two pairs (but not three of a kind
or four of a kind). That happens 82368 and 2808 times respectively of
270725 times. The board will then complete your four of a kind about
9600 and 17550 times in a million out of the times you were dealt
holecards with one or two pairs. Then depending on which four of a kind
you got the chances are different to beat you with a straight flush,
from about 400 times in a million if you hold AAAA or 2222, to about
950 times in a million if you hold 8888. I am roughly calculating on an
average of 735
(400+517+635+785+950+950+950+950+950+785+635+517+400)/13.

one pair holecards: 82368 / 270725 * 9600 * 735 / 1000000 = about 1 in
466,000
two pairs holecards: 2808 / 270725 * 17550 * 735 / 1000000 = about 1 in
7,474,000
one or two pairs holecards: about 1 in 438,500

The chance that your opponent is dealt the four of a kind hand and you
beat him with straightflush is equally probable, 1 in 438,500... so the
situation where two players are dealt 4 random holecards and go to
showdown with a random flop turn and river, one of the players will get
four of a kind and get beaten by the other player about one time every
219,250 deals.

for 3 players it will happen once in 73,080
for 4 players it will happen once in 36,540
for 5 players it will happen once in 21,930
for 6 players it will happen once in 14,620
for 7 players it will happen once in 10,440
for 8 players it will happen once in 7,830
for 9 players it will happen once in 6,090
for 10 players it will happen once in 4,872

hope this gives you the answer you looked for :)

ploholic